- 6 Aug 2010 1:00 AM
The raw IP figure shows an increase of 15.2%, up from 13.8% in May.
In monthly terms, output grew by 0.9%, according to figures adjusted seasonally and by working days, which marks a major downturn from 5.6% in May.
The KSH detected an IP increase of 9% in H1, vs. 7.7% in January-May.
Detailed data will be published on 13 August.
While those focusing on the yr/yr data can point to a slowdown in growth, it would be misleading. The 12-m indicator retreated some because the base figure was exceptionally high in June 2009. The months that followed, however, showed decline again, and so if the sector maintains its current form, the yr/yr figure will rise further as a result of the base impact.
The processes are best demonstrated by the chart below that compares IP to 2005 data. This shows the sector has started get its grip back, albeit on a rather zig-zaggy path, in the second half of 2009, but it really got going this spring.
Additionally, the prospects are also good because the manufacturing purchasing manager index also promises growth for the months to come and new export orders are also on the rise. Regarding the latter, the latest data are from May, though, with June figures due next week.
Altogether, H2 turned out rather well for the industry and that could be reflected in Q2 GDP numbers, as well (to be published next week). According to our calculations, growth in added value could be over 4% which makes it likely that we’ll see solid evidence that the economy in fact left the recession behind in early 2010."