PM's Days Are Numbered, Orbán May Start Writing His Inaugural Address

Kathrin Lauer, Der Standard's Budapest-based reporter, said the biggest problem of the Socialist Party (MSZP) is that there was no generation change in it for ten years, and that is why no one could step up to replace Gyurcsány and give hope to the party to remain in power.

She projects that after a caretaker government or early elections Viktor Orbán may take charge again, although the author noted that the economic programme of Fidesz remains obscure.

“The future of the country after the Gyurcsány era is uncertain," the paper said. The author said Orbán has sent out murky messages so far, as his pure leftist populism was mixed with nationalist slogans. Laurer claims the head of Fidesz has failed to come up with solutions in the area of public finances (budget deficit, government debt) and that he is not the one to expect reforms from.

Regarding the envisaged end of the Gyurcsány era, the paper recalled the PM's two biggest fiascos, his “lies speech" and this spring's referendum, which led to the break-up of the coalition with the liberal Free Democrats (SZDSZ).

While the (current) head of the SZDSZ, Gábor Fodor, hit a more cautious tone during the divorce proceedings in April, he now cites the cabinet's lack of credibility and inability to act when he is casting his disappointment-bred criticism on the head of the PM, the author said.

Regarding the problem of succession Laurer sees the Socialists facing now, the author drew a parallel between the current situation and the one in 2002-2004, when the appointment of Péter Medgyessy, a party outsider and a man with “dull policy", was an emergency solution.

Something similar applies to Gyurcsány, who was let to take over in 2004 by the leadership of the MSZP for they believed his dynamism would help them win the elections in 2006, Laurer added. “His programme didn't matter to them. That's why it failed," the author concluded."

Source: Portfolio Online Financial Journal