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Yukos exports to choke, MOL soothes, shares fall |
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In the past one hour MOL’s shares dropped 2.6% to HUF 8,270 (by 1515 local time) in abruptly rising turnover. Russian authorities called upon oil giant Yukos to stop oil sales, but MOL reportedly maintains its stance that Hungary’s oil supply was not in jeopardy. We accept this but...
We still believe the question should not be whether there will be oil or not. The key question is: at what price?. Of course, MOL could switch to an alternative oil supplier, even on the Russian market, but it is more than probable that the purchase price will be higher - at least temporarily - than what was agreed on with Yukos in their 10-year contract.
In one of our earlier reports we calculated that MOL might be looking at a HUF 3-6 billion boom in expenses upon losing its long-term supplier. (It would be 3-6% of the annual profit that was forecast in June.)
Analysts’ forecasts, however, are almost certain to improve after the company’s second-quarter preliminary report, given the extremely favourable conditions in the industry.
Should Yukos exports be halted, MOL shares are likely to drop until the company communicates reassuring news about an alternative supplier. Source: Portfolio online financial journal
Click here for the source!
29.07.2004
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