Hungarians vote on granting citizenship to their ethnic kin living abroad in a plebiscite on Sunday that poses a risk to the rising popularity of Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany and could upset Hungary's neighbours.
The vote is aimed at embracing millions of Hungarians living abroad after the 1920 carve-up of the Austro-Hungarian empire, which saw Hungarian land ceded to what are now modern day Romania, Slovakia, Serbia and Ukraine.
But with conflicting views on the consequences of a "yes" vote, the referendum has turned into a test between the ruling Socialists and the centre-right opposition Fidesz for control of the domestic political agenda just 18 months ahead of elections. "The issue has degenerated into a political wrangle and both sides are looking to see where they can make short-term gains," said Gabor Torok, a political analyst at Budapest's Corvinus University. "Both sides have lost sight of the actual issue."
Fidesz and its ex-premier Viktor Orban have championed the vote from the go as the party claimed it would heal a split nation. But analyst said Fidesz also saw the vote as a way to reach across party lines and appeal to Socialist voters.
Gyurcsany took over as prime minister two months ago charged with re-energising the ailing Socialists and had no choice but to fight back against Fidesz, even though Socialist supporters are split on the highly emotional issue.
Opinion polls show a majority of Hungarians favour some form of citizenship for their ethnic kin.
"With this campaign, Fidesz managed to gain control over the political agenda," said Andra Giro-Szasz, a political analyst at think tank Szazadveg. "Orban forced Gyurcsany on the defensive and made him appear to be against national unity."
TURNOUT CRITICAL
Gyurcsany has pinned his "no" campaign on stoking fears of immigration, claiming Hungarians in poor Balkan states will flock to European Union member Hungary.
The Socialists say hundreds of thousands of new citizens could soon claim social benefits, costing the budget as much as 537.4 billion forint ($2.9 billion), and take jobs.
Economists say such risks are overblown and many ethnic Hungarians who want to work in Hungary are already doing so.
But the Socialists' arguments have turned the referendum into a close race, with the latest opinion poll by Median institute showing 42 percent in favour and 40 percent against. The plebiscite will only be valid if 50 percent of eligible voters turn out or, if less, if at least 25 percent of the 8 million electorate vote either "yes" or "no".
Pollsters predict a turnout of between 35 and 45 percent, and a low turnout risks an inconclusive outcome, which would widen the political rift between the major parties.
A "no" vote would put Gyurcsany under pressure to convert it into potentially costly legislation, giving Orban scope to criticise any delays in implementing the will of the people.
The vote may also complicate the government's relations with Hungary's neighbours, suspicious of what they sometimes see as Budapest's nostalgia for the Austro-Hungarian empire.
The vote has already cased a critical reaction in Romania, home to 1.5 million ethnic Hungarians, most of whom live in Transylvania which both nations see as their birthplaces.
The vote was triggered when an interest group of ethnic Hungarians living abroad collected more than 200,000 signatures, enough to require the president to call a referendum.
Source: Reuters
03.12.2004