Hungary’s largest telecom, Matáv Rt, is likely to acquire Montenegro’s state telecom company, but this might not be a very advantageous deal for Matáv and needs to be followed by some larger buyouts, analysts told the BBJ.
“Matáv has a good chance of acquiring the Montenegrin incumbent, though it could end up paying a bit over the odds,” said Mónika Tabányi, an analyst at Concorde Securities Rt.
Matáv offered €114 million for a 51% stake in Telekom Crne Gore (Telekom CG), Branko Vujovi?, head of Montenegro’s Restructuring and Foreign Investment Agency, was cited by news agency Reuters as saying last Wednesday.
Matáv’s bid also included investment funding of €67 million over the next five years, as well as a promise to buy the remaining 49% of Telekom CG from small shareholders.
Matáv, which is owned by Deutsche Telekom, announced in late December 2004 that it had submitted a binding offer in the public tender process for the sale of shares in Telekom CG.
Tabányi said her estimates put the fair purchase price of the stake at around €100 million.
“The reason behind Matáv’s highest bid is that it has a proven track record in restructuring inefficient telecoms though its ownership of [Macedonian telco] MakTel, and it can afford it without too much of an impact on dividend payments,” said Tabányi.
“Montenegro has a population around one-third of that of Macedonia or Budapest, and its sales are one third of MakTel’s,” she noted. “The acquisition would add just 3%–5% to Matáv’s overall sales.”
Montenegro’s incumbent fixed-line operator serves around 191,000 customers. The company generated standalone revenues of $72.1 million, with EBITDA of $22.8 million, in 2003.
There are not many potential add-on acquisitions around for Matáv, opined Tabányi.
“Mobtel [a part government owned Serbian mobile operator] has an insufficiently transparent ownership structure for Matáv, though this might change. MobilTel in Bulgaria looks to be going to Telekom Austria. There are not many incumbent operators left to buy,” she said.
Last May, Szabolcs Szikszai, then an analyst at Takarékbank Rt, said that Matáv may be readying a bid to buy Telekom Srbija.
“Matáv’s primary target could be Telekom Srbija. The sale of Telekom CG is likely to reveal potential buyers of Telekom Srbija,” Szikszai said at that time.
Serbia has a population of approximately 10 million, while Montenegro has just 620,000 inhabitants.
The Reuters report last week cited Vujovi? naming the second, third and fourth highest bidders for Telekom CG as Slovenia’s Telekom Slovenije, Telekom Srbija, and Austria’s Mobilkom, the mobile unit of Telekom Austria.
The tender board will pass on the list of bidders to Montenegro’s privatization agency for approval, and talks will start with the best bidder by late January. Officials disclosed that the buyer will be chosen on the basis of both its cash offer and its business and social program. The cash element will count for 75 points during the assessment of the tender, while business and employment plans will carry 25 points.
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12.01.2005