"All of Hungary's parliamentary parties have their own scenarios to handle the current government crisis, but none of them is capable of putting these through without allies. The most likely outcome currently appears to be a Prime Minister candidate that both the Socialist Party (MSZP) and its former ally the Free Democrats (SZDSZ) can agree on.Socialist PM Ferenc Gyurcsány announced on Saturday he was ready to stand aside and hand over crisis management to a new government and a new leader if he was the only obstacle to the necessary changes. He will not step out from the political scene though, as he was re-elected with a large majority to President of the MSZP for another two years.
Ground rules
The Socialist Party has only 189 seats in Parliament, enough to put forward a motion of no confidence in the PM, which requires a least one-fifth of the total 386 seats, but short of 194 votes necessary to confirm a new PM, so it would need support from at least one of the two smaller parties.
The MSZP could seek a new alliance or coalition with its former ally, the Free Democrats (SZDSZ) that has 19 votes or the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) that has 11 votes.
The Free Dems want a more radical package than what the Socialists offered, insisting on bigger cuts in spending and taxes to shore up the economy. The MSZP, however, is polling only 16-17% support therefore may not give in to such demands. Plus trade unions are to protest nationwide. It may be indeed hard to find a compromise candidate.
The main opposition party Fidesz, which has been leading in opinion polls for some time now, demanded early parliamentary elections to coincide with the 7 June elections to the European Parliament, and announced that it would submit a motion to dissolve Parliament on Monday.
New elections could also be called if Gyurcsány formally resigns and Parliament fails to approve the candidate nominated by President Sólyom within 40 days.
The Socialists have said they will nominate a new PM candidate by 5 April. If the new PM and anti-crisis program wins backing from at least one of the smaller parties, he or she could be confirmed at the first parliamentary session after Easter, on 14 April, and new government could be formed by mid-April.
Local news portal index.hu has summed up the main possible scenarios. The most likely is on top.
The plan of MSZP: Redemption after Easter
According to the Socialists' scenario, the big change of power will take place on 14 April, which means Gyurcsány and his cabinet will remain in place for another three weeks. And then on 14 April (Tuesday) they will all pack up and leave, giving the floor to a whole new PM and ministers.
Gyurcsány gave two weeks to find his successor. A Socialist Party congress is to approve the candidate on 5 April and the constructive motion of no confidence may be submitted to Parliament on 6 April.
A three-day waiting period comes and there is no session in Parliament on the week starting with 6 April. As 13 April is Easter, 14 April is the first day Parliament can actually vote on the motion. (See voting rules above.)
The plan of the SZDSZ: From the outside
The only party that said it would be wiling to sit to the negotiating table regarding the new PM was the Free Democrats. Its history with the MSZP goes way back. They have been governing together between 1994 and 1998 and also between 2002 and 2008 until the SZDSZ decided to quit. It has been helping the Socialists in key votes ever since. The two of them have enough MPs to help form a new government.
SZDSZ President Gábor Fodor said his party would not form a coalition with the MSZP, but it remains willing to support a suitable PM and a reform programme from the outside. He said they want no ministerial positions rather than an able cabinet.
The two parties have already started discussions behind the scenes that are likely to continue on Monday.
The plan of Fidesz: Dismissed!
Fidesz wants to talk with no party about who would / should succeed Gyurcsány. It insists on early elections and to this end it will call for the dissolution of Parliament on Monday. Fidesz and the MDF have tried that in vain for a number of times in the past year and there is little chance of success now as well. They are simply not enough for that and the SZDSZ has already signaled they do not think it is time for early elections. And supporting such motion from the ranks of the Socialist Party appears downright unthinkable.
Fidesz argues Hungary needs a government that the voters would have confidence in and a person (PM) nominated as a result of clandestine background talks cannot possibly have that trust.
While Fidesz will probably not have enough power to amend the Parliament's Monday agenda and submit its motion, some grumbling Socialist MPs could support the idea of early elections, saying it is already impossible to take popular measures in the next year and they could at least “get back on their feet" by the 2010 municipal elections.
Fidesz has not disclosed so far what they are planning to do if the dissolution idea flops, but its caucus is meeting on Monday with President Viktor Orbán among the speakers and so a Plan B might be out in the open in the afternoon.
The plan of the MDF: People's front of regime changes
The MDF proposed for the opposition parties to have a joint PM candidate. While the MDF, Fidesz, the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) and the SZDSZ could in theory take power, it seems highly unrealistic that they will join under the same flag against the Socialists.
Fidesz has nothing on its mind than the dissolution of Parliament and early elections and while the liberals did not rebuff the notion, its reactions to that were far from positive.
The MDF, which has just lost its faction in Parliament, is the only party that suggested someone for Gyurcsány's place, namely former finance minister Lajos Bokros, who heads the party's list of candidates in the European parliamentary elections. Bokros was the only one among the possible candidates that said he would accept, but both the MSZP and the SZDSZ said no thanks.
The plan that reportedly does not exist: Gyurcsány stays
The PM confirmed on Sunday he would not remain in office, but - again, in theory - a situation may present itself that still leaves him in power. If the MSZP fails to find a partner to come up with a PM candidate in the next two weeks and neither the Socialists nor the SZDSZ want to dissolve Parliament, everything would remain the same. Or almost..."
Source: Portfolio Online Financial Journal
23.03.2009