"Hungary will boast 14 million mobile subscribers in 2014 against 11.9 m in 2009, IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, has projected in its Q1 2010 operator forecast for 2009-2014 on Tuesday.Total mobile subscribers in Hungary will increase from 11.9 million in 2009 to 14.0 million in 2014, IEMR projected.
It expects T-Mobile, the mobile arm of Deutsche Telekom-owned Magyar Telekom, to remain the largest operator in Hungary's wireless market.
"We expect that its subscriber base will increase to 6.22 m in 2014 from 5.49 million in 2009," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR.
"We also forecast that Pannon (Telenor) will have 3.91 million subscribers and Vodafone will have 3.88 million subscribers by the end of 2014."
Based on the latest quarterly figures, IEMR’s model predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will increase to 27.7% in 2014 from 23.9% in 2009. It sees T-Mobile's market share decreasing to 44.4% from 46.2% and Pannon's market falling to 27.9% from 29.9% over the forecast period, 2009-2014, Assanie added.
IEMR forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU (average revenue per user) will decline to HUF 3,701 in 2014 from HUF 4,099 in 2009.
Monthly ARPUs at T-Mobile, Pannon (Telenor), and Vodafone will be around HUF 3,595, HUF 3,510 and HUF 4,080 respectively in 2014, it added.
Operator-wide average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue; only for Pannon and T-Mobile) is seen improving to 44.6% in 2014 from 43.1% in 2009.
"T-Mobile will continue to have a higher level of profitability than Pannon."
IEMR’s model forecasts that T-Mobile's EBITDA margin will be 45.8% in 2014 (up from 43.6% in 2009), while it expects Pannon's EBITDA margin to remain at around 43% over the next several years.
IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics."
Source: Portfolio Online Financial Journal
28.01.2010