"Hungary’s industrial production contracted by 7.0% year on year (9.3% on a wda-basis) and shrunk by 1.3% in monthly terms vs. a growth of 1.8% in October.Output dropped 19.1% in the first eleven months of the year versus the same period in 2008.György Barta, CIB Bank, Budapest
"Hungary’s industrial production fell 7% on an annual basis (9.3% on a workday-adjusted basis) in November, showing some improvement in relation to October's 10.8% drop, mainly due to better export performance and base effects (although both export and domestic sales are expected to have remained in the red on an annual basis)."
"The two monthly expansions in output were followed by a month-on-month drop during November, showing that Hungarian industrial trends are still improving much slower than in other CE4 countries (the Czech Republic and Poland already saw a positive year-on-year figure in November and the expectation is the same for Slovakia)."
"Recent releases (e.g. forward-looking indicators, such as the German manufacturing PMI, German factory orders or the Commission’s economic confidence index) all point to a mild uptrend in the most important Western European target markets, which could provide some support to the Hungarian export sector (and, thereby, to output, especially parts supplies)."
"The base could also lift the year-on-year figure into positive territory in December, providing a cosmetic improvement to the otherwise dismal yearly figure. Nevertheless, the slow recovery in these markets is still fragile and could decelerate somewhat as fiscal stimuli and inventory rebuilding fade."
"Overall, the NBH still has many reasons to support the real economy by cutting rates further in a cautious manner."
Gábor Ambrus, 4Cast, Sofia
"This time the output figures fall slightly short of expectations, the -9.3% y/y wda print is below mkt's -7.8% y/y (BBG) and our -8.0% 4Cast, though the nwda figure comes in line with the RTS consensus for -7.0% y/y."
"M/M the swda output figure was -1.3%, quite weak but should be seen in light of the +3.8% and +1.8% prints of the preceding months."
"Though Hungarian PMI figures have defied the regional trend and remain under the 50bar, the pace of decline is clearly slowing and most recent industrial orders data are encouraging. The recovery is under way though given that Hungary is in the double grip of the global recession and fiscal consolidation, it is going to be a slow and drawn out process."
Source: Portfolio Online Financial Journal
08.01.2010