"May saw another minor decline in retail sales in Hungary, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) reported. This marked the 16th consecutive month when retail sales volume was lower than a year earlier. Auto sales also suffered a setback.Adjusted for calendar effects, the volume of retail sales dropped 1.6% year-on-year in May, while the aggregate figure for the first five months of 2008 fell 2.4% behind the corresponding months of 2007. The adjusted figures show a 0.2% drop in May compared with April, according to KSH.
As revealed by a comparison of annual data over a relatively longer period, there are signs of a minor recovery, however only in the sense that the year-on-year decline is smaller than in 2007. Real wages are expected to increase by a small degree in the second half of 2008, which may bring some fizz into consumption figures as well. We expect the overall 2008 yr/yr change around zero.
Auto and auto part sales, which are not included in retail in EU statistics, fell 1.3% in May year-on-year, considerably worse than the 5.3% increase registered in April. However, as this is a highly volatile consumption segment, a more meaningful indicator is that sales volume stagnated in the first five months of 2008.
May motor fuel sales at unchanged prices fell 0.8% behind May 2007. Overall, the spring months witnessed a decline in this segment, with demand probably dampened by rising prices.
Detailed statistics
According to calendar adjusted data, the volume of grocery, beverage and tobacco sales decreased by 1.7% in the first five months of 2008 and by 1.3% in May compared to the same period of the previous year. Sales volumes for non-specialized retail units (hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores), a market segment with a dominant 91% market share, declined by 1.4% while stores stocking only food, beverages or tobacco increased by 0.2%. In May, according to seasonally and calendar adjusted data, food, beverage and tobacco stores had a sales volume decrease of 0.5% compared to April.
In the non-food sector non-food retail trade turnover at constant prices was down by 3.0% in the first four months and by 1.9% in May compared to the same period of the previous year. In May, sales volume for pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries, as well as sales in textiles, clothing, footwear stores increased year-on-year while sales declined in nearly all other sales categories, especially furniture, household goods and construction materials.
Sales volume for books, newspapers and other articles as well as non-specialized stores only slightly decreased compared to the same month of the previous year. In May, non-food retail sales at constant prices - according to seasonally and calendar adjusted data - rose by 0.1 percent compared to the previous month."
Source: Portfolio Online Financial Journal
24.07.2008